Version 3.2

Towards modelling degrowth scenarios

Degrowth pathways in an Integrated Assessment Model used in IPCC reports

The scenario database used in the most recent IPCC Assessment Report on climate mitigation does not feature any modelled degrowth scenarios. This means that in assessing the available literature, the IPCC was unable to include degrowth as a strategy for climate action. As a consequence, much is unknown about the global energy, technology, and emissions dynamics of degrowth pathways, making it difficult to quantitatively compare degrowth to more commonly modelled green growth scenarios (Figure 1, for an illustrative comparison).

Using the most prominent tool for creating socioeconomic and technological scenarios, the integrated assessment model, we have created a set of degrowth scenarios for Australia (Figure 2). These new scenarios assume a stronger coupling between GDP and energy consumption than most IPCC mitigation scenarios. Our GDP/capita outcomes range from $10,000/year to $70,000/year.

We will present the methods, results, and lessons learned; and suggest a research agenda for the modelling of global degrowth climate mitigation scenarios that can inform climate reports, climate negotiations, and just transition targets around the world.

Compared to a default growth pathway, we show that our degrowth scenarios, exhibiting lower GDP, are related to lower pressures on the upscaling of renewables and come with a lower reliance on carbon dioxide removal in the second half of the century. At the same time, we also show that radical reductions in energy consumption demand stronger inequality reductions and much faster increases of highly energy efficient provisioning systems to prevent increased decent living standards deprivations.


Day: 2023-09-01
Start time: 12:45
Duration: 00:15
Room: ZV-8-3
Type: Paper Presentation
Theme: Technology and science for degrowth



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